Problem 41 - Applied Mathematics: For the Managerial, Life, and Social Sciences

Question

A certain airport hotel operates a shuttle bus service between the hotel and the airport. The maximum capacity of a bus is 20 passengers. On alternate trips of the shuttle bus over a period of \(1 \mathrm{wk}\), the hotel manager kept a record of the number of passengers arriving at the hotel in each bus. a. What is an appropriate sample space for this experiment? b. Describe the event \(E\) that a shuttle bus carried fewer than ten passengers. c. Describe the event \(F\) that a shuttle bus arrived with a full load.

Step-by-Step Solution

Answer

a. The appropriate sample space for this experiment is: \(S = \{0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 18, 19, 20\}\) b. The event E, a shuttle bus carrying fewer than ten passengers, can be described as: \(E = \{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9\}\) c. The event F, a shuttle bus arriving with a full load, can be described as: \(F = \{20\}\)

Step 1: Define the Sample Space

The sample space should represent all possible numbers of passengers on the bus during a single trip. Since the maximum capacity of the bus is 20 passengers, the sample space for this experiment will be the set of all possible numbers of passengers, starting from 0 passengers to 20 passengers: \(S = \{0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 18, 19, 20\}\)

Step 2: Describe Event E - Fewer Than 10 Passengers

Now, we need to describe the event E which occurs when the bus is carrying fewer than ten passengers. In this case, we can define the event simply as the subset of the sample space containing the number of passenger cases where there are fewer than ten passengers in the bus. Event E: Fewer than 10 passengers on the bus. \(E = \{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9\}\)

Step 3: Describe Event F - Full Load of Passengers

Finally, we'll describe event F, which is when the bus arrives with a full load. This event can be described as the subset of the sample space consisting of only one element, the number 20 since the bus is fully loaded when it carries its maximum capacity of 20 passengers. Event F: Full load of passengers. \(F = \{20\}\)

Key Concepts

Applied Mathematics

Applied mathematics is an essential branch of mathematics that deals with mathematical methods and models used to solve real-world problems. It often involves the application of concepts from various areas such as probability, statistics, and calculus, to tackle challenges in fields like engineering, physics, economics, and beyond. In our exercise, applied mathematics is highlighted through the creation of a model to help a hotel manager understand the patterns of occupancy in the shuttle bus service. By defining a sample space and describing specific events, mathematical tools are utilized to analyze and predict outcomes, thus aiding decision-making processes related to the hotel’s operations.

For example, if a manager notices through probability sampling that buses are frequently arriving with fewer than ten passengers, they might consider adjusting the shuttle schedule or capacity to increase efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Event Definition in Probability

An 'event' in probability is a set of outcomes from a probability experiment that we're interested in. In the context of our shuttle bus scenario, an event can represent something specific such as 'fewer than ten passengers' or 'a full load of passengers' on the bus. Probability theory then allows us to calculate how likely these events are to happen, based on the defined sample space of all possible outcomes. This is crucial in helping businesses and researchers make predictions about future occurrences and helping them devise strategies based on these likelihoods.

For instance, the event of a shuttle bus carrying fewer than ten passengers is particularly significant for the hotel manager, who might be seeking to understand how often the shuttle is underutilized and might need optimization for cost savings or improved service scheduling.

Sample Space in Probability

The sample space in probability is a fundamental concept, encompassing all possible outcomes that can result from a probabilistic experiment. It represents the universal set of all outcomes, against which we define events of interest. In our shuttle bus example, the sample space includes all possible numbers of passengers that could be on a shuttle bus trip, ranging from zero (no passengers) to twenty (full capacity).

Understanding the sample space is crucial because it provides the basis for determining probabilities of different events. If the sample space is not accurately defined, the calculated probabilities won't reflect the real-world situation, potentially leading to incorrect conclusions or decisions. Therefore, a thoroughly outlined sample space is the bedrock upon which reliable and actionable probability analysis is constructed.

Probability Theory

Probability theory is the mathematical framework that deals with the analysis of random phenomena. It enables us to quantify uncertainty and make informed guesses about the likelihood of various outcomes. Probability theory involves the study of sample spaces, events, and the probabilities associated with them. It is a tool that is used across a multitude of disciplines, wherever the outcome is uncertain and we need to predict or understand possible scenarios and their chances of occurrence.

The concepts we see with the airport shuttle bus, such as defining a sample space (\(S\)) and various events (\(E\) and \(F\)), rely on the principles of probability theory to analyze the possible scenarios. The practical application of such analysis could lead to improving shuttle bus schedules to optimize for patterns in passenger numbers, thereby increasing the hotel's efficiency and customer satisfaction.